Defending Jobs in a Trade War

In the wake of the economic war launched by the United States President Trump, the present economic outlook for Canada undoubtedly trends towards pessimism and uncertainty. The Bank of Canada’s January 2026 headline outlook sees US tariffs and the unpredictability of future trade agreements as major disruptions to the US economy, leading to economic adjustments that are still incomplete while geopolitical risks remain elevated (Bank of Canada, January 2026). Ordinary Canadians, worried about this dire outlook and already feeling the effects of a cost-of-living crisis, are looking to the Government of Canada for a policy response to protect Canadian jobs and the economy.

The Carney government’s recent announcements do little to put defending existing jobs at the forefront of their economic plan; rather, significant job cuts in the public service and the promise of future jobs tied to major projects forms the basis of this economic agenda. Notably, the current approach of the Carney government to defending Canada’s economy appears to have different priorities from past responses to economic emergencies like the 2008 Financial Crisis or COVID-19 shutdown.
 

At this point, Canada’s economy teeters between stagnation and recession indicators. While the US trade war has thrown in a substantial element of uncertainty into the Canadian economic outlook, other sources of uncertainty such as climate change, chronic underinvestment in health care, elder care, childcare, education, and other social sectors, influenced by all levels of government, and Canada’s housing market certainly influence this outlook as well.

Only a few years removed from the economic shock of the COVID-19 pandemic, over the past year Canadians have been battered by tariff-related economic uncertainty, the high cost of living, and rising unemployment. Many expect a government response to the crisis, but do they believe that the Carney government’s priorities meet this moment? Who do Canadians feel they can count on to protect their jobs, help their communities through tough times, and what is the household-level economic future they envision? This study seeks to answer these questions at a pivotal moment for the country.

Five key findings:

1. The economic growth agenda isn’t made for everyone. Most Canadians don’t think that economic growth under Prime Minister Carney’s plans will change their household’s financial situation.
2. Generational divides matter. Young workers are pessimistic but open to intervention; older voters see better times ahead but distrust government solutions.
3. Jobs are about more than just money – but pay matters. Canadians see jobs as about both earning and contributing, but right now, a “good job” is one that pays well.
4. Unions are viewed as defenders of jobs – politicians are not. Union membership is linked to a sense of economic security, while politicians are largely seen as absent in moments of local economic crisis.
5. Grounded policy resonates best right now. Canadians generally support government involvement to promote job protection, creation and economic security, but doubt the government’s ability to deliver.

Defending Jobs in a Trade War: Canadian Perspectives on Work, Security, and Economic Trust

EN FRANCAIS: Cette publication est également disponible en français:

Protéger les emplois dans un contexte de guerre commerciale: Perspectives canadiennes sur le travail, la sécurité et la confiance économique