A New Climate: Energy and Industrial Policy under Trump 2.0

The 2024 election of Donald Trump marks a turning point for transatlantic climate, energy, and industrial policy. Yet even if U.S. politics moderates, for example with Democrats regaining Congress or the presidency – the transatlantic relationship will not return to pre-2016 norms. U.S. politics will remain polarised, post-war security guarantees are unlikely to be restored, fossil energy will retain a dominant role, and the great-power rivalry with China will reshape the global order. In a multipolar landscape, the EU must position itself between competing major powers while confronting persistent pressures: Russian aggression, Chinese competitive challenges, Middle Eastern instability, and growing migration from Africa driven by climate change and demographic pressures.

Drawing on stakeholder workshops and a structured scenario-building exercise, this paper compares climate and energy policy developments in the United States, the EU, and Germany, and develops three scenarios for transatlantic cooperation to 2030 – “Transatlantic Stabilisation”, “Low-Speed Decarbonisation” and “Decoupled Decline” – illustrating trajectories ranging from renewed cooperation to stagnating progress and, in the worst case, a breakdown of transatlantic climate policy. In the U.S., a shift toward fossil-fuel–oriented energy dominance coexists with persistent market drivers favouring renewables. The EU remains committed to the Green Deal but faces insufficient investment and political fragmentation. Germany faces tensions between climate targets and economic pressures from high energy costs and international competition.

The paper concludes with strategic recommendations centred on a dual-track approach: short-term measures to strengthen energy security and competitiveness, alongside longer-term investments in institutional resilience and greater independent European climate leadership. Key priorities include accelerating renewable energy deployment, safeguarding core climate policy instruments, diversifying supply chains, and building the EU’s capacity for autonomous climate action even in the absence of reliable transatlantic cooperation and amid deepening geopolitical uncertainty.

A New Climate: Energy and Industrial Policy under Trump 2.0 – Three Scenarios for Transatlantic Cooperation on the Way to 2030

Find all publications from this project here:

A New Climate: EU's strategic approaches under Trump 2.0

A New Climate: Europe in the long shadow of Trump 2.0

A New Climate: Germany's policy options in times of Trump 2.0