Disruptor-in-Chief: A mandate for radical change?

The Republican Party’s victory in the battle for the White House, the House of Representatives, and the Senate in the 2024 US elections raises many questions about the realignment of the electorate. While the Democrats’ target audience in the campaign has remained the same, the Republican Party’s electorate has grown and diversified: It is increasingly a home for blue-collar Americans, some young people, and demographic minorities.

The return of Donald Trump to the White House makes it clear that the populist shift to the right in the United States in 2016 was not an exception but rather the result of longer-term societal developments and realignments. With a Supreme Court dominated by a conservative majority (6 to 3 at the time of writing), the country will be influenced by Trumpian politics for the next few years. The Democratic Party must process its electoral loss, reflect, and redefine itself

Donald Trump won the Electoral College with 312 of the required 270 electoral votes. It was a historically narrow victory, with Trump winning just under half of the votes (49.9 percent, 77,234,710 votes). Kamala Harris attained 226 votes in the Electoral College (48.4 percent, 74,938,722 votes). Though it was close, Donald Trump won the popular vote and is the first Republican to do so since 2004. The House of Representatives is now controlled by a conservative majority, with 220 Republican-held seats (just over the 218 seats needed for a majority). Again, the Republicans are narrowly ahead of the Democrats, who have 215 seats. At the Senate level, the Grand Old Party (GOP) flipped 4 seats and, therefore, will also hold the majority in the upper chamber, with 53 seats. The Democrats (including the independents who caucus with the party in the Senate) only achieved 47 seats (down four seats) and thus have lost their majority. That Trump’s GOP was able to win both chambers, in addition to the White House, came as a surprise. Despite this Republican trifecta, it will be difficult for Republicans to govern unilaterally in the way Donald Trump envisions.

The new US political landscape is taking shape amid several polarizing culture wars and social upheavals, centered largely around the economy, inflation, immigration, abortion, and transgender rights. These debates have galvanized voters from all walks of life to vote for Donald Trump and Republican Party candidates at the national level. Conversely, preserving democracy, the issue promoted by the Democrats, appears not to have the same mobilizing effect. With their election victory, Trump and his followers envision themselves as having a sweeping mandate that will allow them to remake institutions according to their wishes.

The Senate hearings for Trump’s cabinet nominations are scheduled for the beginning of 2025. These high-ranking posts could be given primarily to loyalists, some of whom lack expertise and experience in their respective fields. The United States is at a historic juncture point that will significantly shape the country, international trade, and the security policy landscape. There are lessons to be learned. Some important insights can be gleaned from this campaign and the electoral results that will be instructive for the upcoming elections in Canada and Germany.

You can find the full analysis below!