Security Radar 2025: Europe – Lost in Geopolitics

Security Radar 2025 is the fourth edition of a survey first conducted in 2019, then again in 2021 and also in 2022 in selected countries across the OSCE space. It is a representative public opinion survey aimed at capturing citizens’ attitudes on a broad array of foreign and security policy issues. The focus of this year’s edition is clearly the war against Ukraine and its repercussions for European security.

This year’s Security Radar revisits the last 14-country edition, which was presented in 2022 at the Munich Security Conference just days before Russia invaded Ukraine. We wanted to see how attitudes have changed three years on, and thus included almost the same set of countries: Germany, France, Italy, Latvia, Poland, Russia, Serbia, Sweden, Türkiye, the United Kingdom, Ukraine and the United States. Only three countries are »new«, featuring in the Security Radar for the first time: Sweden, a country that recently joined NATO in response to Russia’s attack on Ukraine; the Central Asian state of Kazakhstan, which is a close ally of Russia, but condemns its war against Ukraine; and Georgia, a South Caucasian nation that was granted EU candidate status in December 2023 and has been rocked by mass protests since the current government’s reversal of the decision to hold accession negotiations. We added these three countries because Europe’s reach and agency (»actorness«) is visible not only internally and in its alliances, but also outside its borders.

Security Radar 2025 builds on a representative public opinion poll conducted in 14 countries. The poll takes stock of mutual threat perceptions and attitudes to domestic and multilateral institutions, and foreign policy priorities, as well as to a range of instruments, such as diplomacy and military and economic sanctions. It highlights core issues for European security, such as the ongoing war against Ukraine, which is overshadowed by Russian threats of escalation, relations with Russia and questions about cooperation and confrontation. 

The report appears at a time of alarming instability on the European continent. Russia has been waging war on Ukraine for nearly three years, and has even corralled North Korean soldiers to serve as boots on the ground. The polarisation between Russia and the »West« has produced tensions not seen since the end of the Cold War, with subversion and sabotage resurfacing, threatening the arteries of the globalised economy. A confrontational order seems to be developing, forcing countries and societies to make hard choices. Georgia and Moldova have been showcases for such choices. The most recent elections in both countries polarised societies and deepened existing societal fractures. And to Europe’s southeast, Hamas’s 7 October 2023 assault on Israel led to a sharp escalation in violence and significant shifts in power dynamics within an already fragile and fragmented regional order.

Many societies in the OSCE area are struggling to navigate this new and dangerous international environment. Prospects for the future seem gloomy, fears of wars and conflicts are rising. Russia’s war against Ukraine has magnified many of the upcoming challenges. Questions and possible solutions regarding the future of the European security order centre on this war. The survey shows how the war is perceived, the stances of different parts of society towards it and how it is intertwined with broader questions concerning the international system. Our data highlight the different coping strategies, whether it be an inward-turn sometimes bordering on isolationism, a focus on narrowly defined national interests or, paradoxically, a strengthening of international organisations. The political recommendations incorporate these views.

Despite the current trend towards competition and confrontation, we maintain the importance of cooperative approaches in international security. Including such thinking within the framework of confrontational approaches will be needed for the prevention, as well as the resolution of conflicts, and for tackling planetary challenges affecting us all, first and foremost climate change.

Citizens’ perspectives are central and important. Ordinary people deserve some say in the running of their countries and politicians need input from public opinion to make informed decisions, particularly in times of alarming instability and high uncertainty. Results from different editions of the Security Radar map the shifting landscape of European security policy. Decision-makers across all polled countries have to cope with the emergence of new fears and anxieties among the public. At the same time, they can build upon broad public support for a pragmatic policy geared towards limiting the repercussions of the war, and prioritising peace and security in Europe.

The report has four parts. The first part provides an overview of the research design. The second part presents the cross-country data in a comparative matter. Wherever possible, it shows the evolution of public opinion over time (comparison of attitudes in 2021, 2022 and 2024). The third part zooms in on the 14 polled countries and draws attention to their idiosyncrasies. The final, analytical part distils the key patterns and arguments emerging from the data, takes a closer look at the prospects for peace and cooperation, and offers some policy recommendations.

You can find the comprehensive analysis below!